Adding this bookmark on growing a forest in the desert... not sure where it'll be needed in 2045, but it has a role:
Let's see if this makes sense:
Desertification from over-grazing populations and agriculture improperly (unsustainably) practiced makes climate change worse.
Obviously. A long-term example with lots of history: the Saharan dust storms have been growing abnormal in intensity the last couple years.
South America (and really, we have to think of the continents all as neighbors) is being stupidly slashed and burned in possibly irreversible damage to the entities and their neighbors who need water?
A forest project started "In the Yatir Project, initiated in 2000, we focus specifically on the complex impact of land use changes, such as afforestation, on carbon sequestration potential, surface temperature (energy budget), and water yield (the difference between precipitation and loss by Evapotranspiration). Understanding these aspects and the unavoidable tradeoffs among them are often neglected, especially in the semi-arid region. But their knowledge should be used as a critical tool in formulating national and regional water and carbon management policies. Quantitative knowledge of these tradeoffs should also help in better understanding biosphere-atmosphere interactions on the global scale."
So by about 2045, we'll have ~45 small years of perspective (or as the mechaniqs might say "hindsight").
"... estimated in 1993 that land use changes in Israel, from extensive tree cover (e.g. 10,000 years ago) to intensive agriculture (today) significantly altered water yield. A main consequence of widespread decrease in evapotranspiration due to land use changes, or due to high CO2-induced reduction in plant transpiration, is increase in runoff, contributing to floods, erosion and loss of fertile soils."
Every continent, it seems, has an example of Earth's retaliation against water abusers as #Desertification.
An especially interesting example is what happened to the Aral Sea, aggressively drained by foolish agricultural practices:
"The Soviet plan to maximize one ecosystem service---fresh water---at the cost of many others proceeded, and the 1930s saw the construction of a system of irrigation canals. Crop production rose as irrigated areas in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan jumped from 6.4 million acres to 15.9 million acres over two decades, employing millions of people in the region. But with its major inflows being diverted for irrigation, the Aral Sea began shrinking in the 1960s. By 2005, it had lost more than half of its surface area, exposing nearly 30,000 km2 of lake bed, and nearly three-quarters of its volume.
The formerly thriving fishing industry collapsed as the freshwater influx declined and salinity increased, leading to the disappearance of 60,000 jobs linked to the Aral Sea fishery. The dried up sea bed produced dust storms laden with chemicals and pesticides from the intensive agriculture occurring along the two rivers. This in turn led to increased air and water pollution levels, and crop damage as much as 1,000 km away. Cancers, respiratory diseases, anemia, miscarriages, and kidney and liver diseases soared in the region.
By 1987, the Aral Sea had split into two segments---the North Aral Sea in Kazakhstan, and the South Aral Sea, more or less in Uzbekistan. In 1995, the World Bank and Kazak government built a dam to prevent water in the northern section from flowing into the southern portion."
Have been thinking about it and how/what it means for other white mens' rapaciousness.
What ultimately damaged the Aral Sea was crop monoculture damage not mitigated soon enough. 20,000 (non-SI measurement) of anything is far too much for even guesstimating.
"Actually a freshwater lake, the Aral Sea once had a surface area of 26,000 square miles (67,300 square kilometers). It had long been been ringed with prosperous towns and supported a lucrative muskrat pelt industry and thriving fishery, providing 40,000 jobs and supplying the Soviet Union with a sixth of its fish catch.
The Aral Sea was fed by two of Central Asia's mightiest rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. But in the 1960s, Soviet engineers decided to make the vast steppes bloom. They built an enormous irrigation network, including 20,000 miles of canals, 45 dams, and more than 80 reservoirs, all to irrigate sprawling fields of cotton and wheat in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. (See "8 Rivers Run Dry From Overuse.")
But the system was leaky and inefficient, and the rivers drained to a trickle. In the decades that followed, the Aral Sea was reduced to a handful of small lakes, with a combined volume that was one-tenth the original lake's size and that had much higher salinity, due to all the evaporation."
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