Anyone living in the East worried about this yet?

Five days ago, the long-range flood outlook for the eastern US was showing "only" 235 gauges with the least severe expectation of "minor" flooding during the next 3 months:

Orange = minor
Red = moderate
Purple = major

Today it is 377. See full thread of posts for context.

65 > 50% major flood risk
108 > 50% moderate flood risk
377 > 50% minor flood risk

The of Concerned Scientists[1] has something to say about the spring flood outlook.

NOAA's predicted spring flood outlook areas include several areas with severity, the illustrations below are extrapolated out to include newer data.

TL;DR is: 23 states and 128 million population affected.

"Researchers with the Union of Concerned Scientists compared coronavirus projection models from Columbia University with NOAA's most recent spring flood forecast and came to some startling conclusions about which communities are most likely to be hit with both the global pandemic and spring flooding between now and May 31."

Much earlier than the start of hurricane season, this is already what is looking likely.

With any (any at all) significant snow or rain or storm surge events, affected areas could be much larger.

While there's always a potential threat from COVID or something from any one of the "10 million viruses in a lick of seawater", be sure to update your evacuation plans accordingly, should you happen to find yourself needing to flee a different kind of disaster. [1]

Show thread

It's possible to click through the posts about this topic and see the outlook progression going from bad to worse. The areas in red are where the latest new floods are happening.

While I haven't been watching any cable television programs, some independent channel forecasters have shown concern over the significant warm-up expected this week.

21+ degrees above normal in some places. See also: "What if US State boundaries were defined by watershed:

If this summer is anything like the last, dry areas going to get evaporated quickly, and flooded areas are going to have more severe effects from any tropical waves or hurricanes. Hurricane season is not far away.

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