It's 2020. We live in a diverse planet with caves and bears, icemelt, and tears.

Geologic tears make earthquakes and faults and sinking valleys; volcanic pyroclastics, too (Mauna Kea has an astoningishly long history).

Energies of weathering storms also provide warnings and cause break-downs into various granularities; not all of them good:

A tumbleweed tornado, for example, recently displayed as a literal tornado of radioactive waste toxicity near Hanover.

"Strontium is chemically similar to calcium, and plants take it up readily thinking it's a vital nutrient. Cesium goes into plant roots along metabolic pathways generally used for taking potassium from the soil. Russian thistle is an avid extractor of nutrients from arid soils. For 56 years the plants have scrounged all the radioisotopes they can from the hundreds of ground zeros at the Nevada test site. They set seed fortified with strontium 90 and cesium 137. As the seeds ripen the plants wither. They break off at their roots and the wind drives them where it will ..."

And mankind still cannot solve problems caused by money with money.

Important related threads:

Show thread

It's possible to click through the posts about this topic and see the outlook progression going from bad to worse. The areas in red are where the latest new floods are happening.

While I haven't been watching any cable television programs, some independent channel forecasters have shown concern over the significant warm-up expected this week.

21+ degrees above normal in some places. See also: "What if US State boundaries were defined by watershed:

If this summer is anything like the last, dry areas going to get evaporated quickly, and flooded areas are going to have more severe effects from any tropical waves or hurricanes. Hurricane season is not far away.

Show thread

The of Concerned Scientists[1] has something to say about the spring flood outlook.

NOAA's predicted spring flood outlook areas include several areas with severity, the illustrations below are extrapolated out to include newer data.

TL;DR is: 23 states and 128 million population affected.

"Researchers with the Union of Concerned Scientists compared coronavirus projection models from Columbia University with NOAA's most recent spring flood forecast and came to some startling conclusions about which communities are most likely to be hit with both the global pandemic and spring flooding between now and May 31."

Much earlier than the start of hurricane season, this is already what is looking likely.

With any (any at all) significant snow or rain or storm surge events, affected areas could be much larger.

While there's always a potential threat from COVID or something from any one of the "10 million viruses in a lick of seawater", be sure to update your evacuation plans accordingly, should you happen to find yourself needing to flee a different kind of disaster. [1]

Show thread

NOAA should use millimeters on its mappings. Since it doesn't, I've adapted some of its data for a more precise picture of America's dire and impending "underwater" situation.

Trump's plan to inject trillions into mortgage-backed securities to "save the economy", eh? That has been played before over a decade ago, and it fails dreadfully.

Don't go overvaluing an unsustainable, toxic, sinking ship.

The murals behind these ladies are awesome!

If you haven't heard yet, Arizona is yet another US state that has been experiencing flooding recently.

More on this weather pattern:

A crop of tornadoes sprung up last night across SE Missouri's intra-state regions. Several large cells with lightning were recorded.

Nashville, TN apparently received some damage in its urban area, where over 40 buildings collapsed due to damage, and at least six* fatalities so far reported.

Show thread

Midweek warmup expected across great swaths of the continental US this week. The heat, coupled with "strong troughs of energy" sweeping up out of the Gulf (and some from across the Pacific) means storms and excessive rain across much of the plains and Southeast (SE).

Areas already in "Captain Soggypants" zone should probably expect additional flooding, and to adjust forecasts as possible.

Folks in low-level areas susceptible to floods (often poor neighborhoods in cities) should maybe coordinate on evacuation plans?

Naming the shape of this flood pattern:

"Captain Soggypants of the South"

What happens when you get heavy rain on areas recently affected by "uncontrolled" wildfires? (Crossref discussion about mudslides)

Temps in the interior of Australia right now:

40.7 Β°C
105.2 Β°F
313.8 K
1004 hPa MSLP

19.41Β° S, 132.85Β° E
160Β° @ 13 km/h

The South Pole also has a bunch of low-pressures surrounding a central "anticyclone", though they usually call things different in the southern hemisphere.

Show thread

Anyone living in the East worried about this yet?

Five days ago, the long-range flood outlook for the eastern US was showing "only" 235 gauges with the least severe expectation of "minor" flooding during the next 3 months:

Orange = minor
Red = moderate
Purple = major

Today it is 377. See full thread of posts for context.

65 > 50% major flood risk
108 > 50% moderate flood risk
377 > 50% minor flood risk

Floodplain Plane Geometry

Let's contrast the temps expected in the next ~24-48 hours with what we know about what happens when ice, snow, or snowpacked areas get above freezing:

The first is the "expected" temp distribution over the continental landmass of most of North and Central America. Only _some_ surface-level regions are cooler than these temps. Surface-level temps are shown in the second model output.

Anything green is above freezing.

Many regions currently at one of the levels of "flood stage" (previous post) will likely be unable to carry any extra capacity, and anyone in those flooded regions should prepare themselves to expect more catastrophic-level damage... increasing at an increasing rate for each subsequent weather event.

Show thread

The temperature differentials are clashing in longer strides.

Likely too dangerous to fly? Turbulence among these currents will probably be especially unpredictable.

"Temperatures have been running as much as 20 to 30 degrees or more above normal in most locations east of the Mississippi River, creating dozens of record highs."

"More than 267,000 customers between Arkansas and Ohio lacked power Saturday evening, according to, which aggregates information from hundreds of electric utilities.

With roughly 300 total reports of severe weather (damaging winds, hail or tornadoes) thus far, it is the largest severe weather event of 2020 to date, and the most significant since an outbreak in December across much the same region."

A heavy-rain spring season followed by hot summers and dry autumn with intense is a recipe for hazards, especially in California.

At least 7 large-acreage fires active in in CA during the last 24 hours; check out the incident map.

Tick Fire: 5% of 3950 acres contained as of 10/24/2019

Kincade Fire: 5% of 16000 acres contained as of 10/24/2019


This mastodon instance is dedicated to the survival of indigenous languages, plant knowledge, art, and culture outside white supremacist-controlled networks Facebook and Twitter.
Decolonize food. Decolonize medicine. Decolonize housing. Decolonize from corrupt white supremacist networks. Decolonize the US from its oligarchal form of government! European statues, place names, words, languages, and accounting systems DO NOT BELONG on Turtle Island, and are killing the whole planet. "Traditional Ecological Knowledge" (TEK) is the only thing that can help humans as colonial systems continue to sink deeper into broken, inequitable, and faulty systems that value money over Earth's many forms of life. #LivingWalls, not border walls. . Understand more... .